TLD Churn and Retention Matrix

Cohort Intelligence

Not all domain volume represents durable enterprise adoption. Aggressive $0.99 introductory discounts generate artificial registration spikes that collapse at the second-year renewal cliff. This matrix audits retention durability, monthly deletion velocity, and renewal cliff volatility across all reporting gTLDs.

Evergreen Anchors 12 <2.5% monthly churn

Balanced Commercial 13 2.5% to 5.0% churn

Promo-Cliff Volatility 0 >5.0% monthly drop rate

Core Anchor Renewal 78.5% Multi-year average

Interactive Model First-Year Renewal Cliff Simulator

Simulate Portfolio Second-Year Renewal Collapse

Calculate the real financial yield of low-cost acquisition promotions by modeling second-year drop-off rates and renewal carrying costs.

Initial Registrations (Volume)

Year 1 Promo Price (USD)

Year 2 Standard Price (USD)

Expected Second-Year Retention (%)

Year 1 Gross Inflow $19,900

Year 2 Retained Domains 2,800 domains

Year 2 Dropped / Churned 7,200 domains (-72%)

Year 2 Renewal Revenue $69,972

Empirical gTLD Churn & Retention Ledger

Audited ICANN Reporting

Extension	Active Domains	Monthly Deletions	Est. Renewal Rate	Est. Y1 Drop Rate	Retention Classification	Registry Operator
.com	159,537,930	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Verisign
.net	12,990,280	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Verisign
.org	10,782,195	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Public Interest Registry
.info	3,789,968	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Identity Digital
.xyz	2,966,772	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	XYZ.com
.top	2,655,678	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Identity Digital
.online	2,426,389	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Identity Digital
.site	2,019,017	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Identity Digital
.shop	1,454,339	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Identity Digital
.biz	1,386,270	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	GoDaddy Registry
.app	1,128,361	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	Google Registry
.club	1,093,744	2.15% / mo	68.0%	18%	Evergreen Anchor	GoDaddy Registry
.vip	935,823	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	GoDaddy Registry
.dev	826,457	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Google Registry
.tech	505,597	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Identity Digital
.tokyo	182,817	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	GoDaddy Registry
.nyc	77,939	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	GoDaddy Registry
.london	61,953	2.14% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Nominet
.paris	23,936	2.14% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Identity Digital
.wed	795	2.09% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Atgron, Inc.
.google	319	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Google Registry
.apple	139	2.11% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Apple
.bmw	91	2.15% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	BMW
.barclays	84	1.16% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Barclays
.blanco	4	0.00% / mo	68.0%	32%	Balanced Commercial	Identity Digital

TLD Churn and Retention FAQ

Audited FAQ Reference

Q1. What is the domain first-year renewal cliff?

The first-year renewal cliff occurs when a registry or registrar sells domain registrations at deep loss-leader promotional prices (e.g. $0.99 or $1.99). In the second year, registrations revert to full wholesale retail prices ($15 to $40), causing 60% to 80% of speculative registrations to drop and fail renewal.

Q2. How is domain delete rate calculated in ICANN monthly reports?

The monthly delete rate measures domain deletions during the reporting period as a percentage of total active domain registrations in the registry. Delete rates above 5.0% monthly indicate severe portfolio churn exceeding 50% annualized turnover.

Q3. Why do legacy gTLDs maintain significantly higher retention than new gTLDs?

Legacy extensions such as .com, .net, and .org are heavily anchored in established corporate email systems, active production websites, and enterprise DNS infrastructure, resulting in enduring renewal rates between 75% and 82% compared to new gTLDs that rely on promotional acquisition.

Q4. How does high portfolio churn impact registry financial health?

High churn forces registries onto a continuous acquisition treadmill where they must constantly discount introductory prices to maintain headline registration numbers, depressing gross margins and increasing abusive registration vulnerability.